Basketball Gambling

Sports betting can be both fun and rewarding and many people particularly enjoy basketball gambling. However, just betting on your favorite team every time it plays may not be the best way to be successful. If you’re serious about winning at basketball gambling then you need to know what you’re doing. There are many factors that can affect the outcome of a basketball game and the overall record of the team is just one of those factors.

For example basketball gambling calls for you to know if there have been any injuries to key players that might affect their performance. If there have been, you’ll want to know how long the injury might last. When you want to engage in basketball gambling on a regular basis you’ll also want to know about such things as conflicts within the team and any factors that might affect the teams game against a specific opponent. For example, how does one team’s center or small forward match up against the opposing personnel?

In order to get the best insight on basketball gambling it’s often a good idea to consult with an expert in the field. Such an expert can provide you with the inside information you need to make the right bet. You’ll not only know what the line is for a game, but what factors figured into the setting of the line. All of this type of information helps increase your chances of winning and after all isn’t that what’s sports betting is all about?

Sports Gambling Tips – Making Money From Betting

I am the Sports Editor for a sports news and gambling website. I have many years experience of gambling, sports journalism and study of mathematics. Am I a gambling expert? Well, I guess you could say that.

There are innumerable so-called gambling experts willing to dish out information of their systems to ‘beat the bookie’ or to make a second income from gambling, for a price of course. I won’t do that. I will simply give you information about bookmakers, odds and gambling for you to use (or forget) as you see fit.

The first thing to mention is that the vast majority of people who engage in gambling will be net losers over time. This is the very reason there are so many bookmakers making so much money throughout the world.

While bookmakers can sometimes take big hits, for instance if a favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they set up markets that incorporate a margin, so they will always make a profit over the medium to long term, if not the short term. That is, as long as they got their sums right.

When setting their odds for a particular event, bookmakers must first assess the probability of that event occurring. To do this they us various statistical models based on data collated over years, sometime decades, about the sport and team/competitor in question. Of course, if sport was 100% predictable, it would soon lose its appeal, and while the bookies are often spot on with their assessments of the probability of an event, they are sometimes way off the mark, simply because a match or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.

Just look at any sport and you will find an occasion when the underdog triumphs against all the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988, for instance, or the USA beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two examples of when you would have got handsome odds on the underdog. And could have won a decent wedge.

The big bookmakers spend a lot of time and money ensuring they have the right odds that ensure they take into account the perceived probability of the event, and then add that extra little bit that gives them the profit margin. So if an event has a probability of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability would be 2/1. That is, two to one against that event occurring.

However, a bookie who set these odds would, over time, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they would set the odds at, say, 6/4. In this way they have built in the margin that ensures, over time, they will profit from people betting on this selection. It is the same concept as a casino roulette.

So how can you spot the occasions when bookmakers have got it wrong? Well, it’s easier said than done, but far from impossible.

One way is to get very good at mathematical modelling and set up a model that takes into account as many of the variables that affect the outcome of an event as possible. The problem with this tactic is that however complex the model, and however all-encompassing it seems, it can never account for the minutiae of variables relating to individual human states of mind. Whether a golfer manages to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it is as much down to their concentration as to the weather or day of the week. Also, the maths can start getting pretty darn complicated.

Alternatively you can find yourself a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events that make them the most money, generally found to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So trying to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match will be tough. Unless you work for one of the clubs, or are married to one of the players or managers, it is very likely the bookmaker setting the odds will have more information than you.

However, if you are betting on non-league football, or badminton, or crown green bowls, it is possible, through hard work reading lots of stats, and general information gathering, you can start to gain an edge over bookies (if they even set odds for such things, which many do).

And what do you do when you have an edge in information terms? You follow the value.

Value betting is where you back a selection at odds that are greater than the actual probability of an event occurring. So for instance, if you assess the probability of a particular non-league football team (Grimsby Town, say) winning their next football match as 1/3 or 33%, and you find a bookmaker who has set the odds of 3/1, you have a value bet on your hands. The reason being, odds of 3/1 (excluding the margin built in by the bookie) suggest a probability of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie, in your now learned opinion, has underrated Grimsby’s chances, so you have effectively built in an 8% margin for yourself.

Of course Grimsby (as is often the case) might fluff their lines and fail to win the match, and hence you could lose the bet. But if you continue to seek out and bet on value bets, over time you will make a profit. If you do not, over time, you will lose. Simple.

So the question is, do you have the time and inclination to spend hours finding and refining your sporting niches and/or seeking out the value bets? If the answer is yes, good on you, go for it. If the answer is no, do not fear. At http://www.freebetsfreetips.com/ we give regular free betting tips along with the best odds for various sporting events that will take the hassle out of making your sporting selections and bring you news, match previews and all the best free bet offers to help you get on the best value bets around.

Or, of course, you could marry a football player!

Gambling Tip – The Importance of Bankroll

I have written and talked about the four ingredients necessary to be a successful gambler. They are bankroll, knowledge, money management and discipline.

Discipline is the most important in the end. It is the ability to walk away a winner or with minimal losses. However, before you can use knowledge of the game, money management techniques and eventually discipline, it all starts with bankroll.

Most people will scrape up whatever money they can and think that luck, law of averages or some other illogical theory will make them a winner. It doesn’t happen that way.

A small bankroll causes you to play scared and you will make decisions that coincide with your shortage of money. A small bankroll is such a disadvantage that you find yourself making moves just to stay in the game instead of taking advantage of the beating the house when you encounter a good hot or cold streak.

For example, let’s say a bet calls for taking or laying odds and you don’t have enough money to do it. So you merely make the flat bet. The bet wins but look what your lack of bankroll has done to you. It affected your play and caused you to change an appropriate betting decision because you didn’t have the proper bankroll.

There are two main reasons why most gamblers go down the tubes. Lack of a loss limit and lack of a win goal. These are determined by your bankroll.

A loss limit is a limit you set on what your losses will be for a certain day, game or table. It’s the limit you lose. You never bet down to your last chip.

A session should last until either your win goal is accomplished or your loss limit is reached. When you lose that predetermined amount your play is over.

Loss limits will completely eliminate the possibility of ever going broke. A 50% loss limit should be used but no more than 60%. This means I can lose anywhere up to 60% but never exceed it. My buy in is usually $3000, so I will never draw down more than $1800. The reason you take more money with you than you put at risk is to eliminate playing with scared money. If you are tempted to play with the extra money then you have no discipline. You can make the loss limit lower but not below 25%. You give up your recovery power the more you lower your loss limit.

When you are losing you don’t have to wait for your exact percentage to be reached to quit. When I’m losing at a certain point and can’t get going I realize I’m in the wrong spot and pack it in at less than my loss limit.

Just as important as a loss limit is the win goal. This is the amount of money you set as the goal you want to reach.

This win goal must be set before your first bet, not after you get ahead. It must be set on your starting bankroll same as the loss limit. I usually set my win goal at 20% but never more than 30%. That is not to say that I can’t win more than that 20% or 30%. When I reach my goal I will continue playing until I have a losing shooter. I will continue as long I’m still winning or breaking even.

The win goal is only a point you want to reach and then guarantee your profit for the session.

Win goals must be made small, so we can attain them easily, and then go for the bigger returns.

We must accept the fact that gambling is a tough business and that winning small amounts consistently is better than always going for that big hit. We’ll have our big days but the main thing is to minimize losses. If you adhere to the money management, knowledge and discipline techniques presented in the numerous Benson systems, you will see how much longer your bankroll will stay active. As long as you have that bankroll to compete, you’re a threat to the casinos.